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Showing posts with label offense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label offense. Show all posts

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Even without CC Sabathia, the Cleveland Indians could make the playoffs in 2009 if they focus on fixing their long relief.

Over the past several years, the Indians builit a solid pitching staff comprised of CC Sabathia, Jake Westbrook & Cliff Lee. When Fausto Carmona emerged, and Paul Byrd was put into the fifth spot, the Indians suddenly had no two pitchers that could be called clones of each other, and they also had one of the best 1-5 pitching in either league.

CC was the fireballer with a deceptive change up, Jake Westbrook, by design, would allow many hits but very few walks, teasing opponents into makiing contact that many times resulted in crucial double plays. Fausto Carmona could throw hard, and had a sinker that left many batters wondering who elevated batters box. Even Cliff Lee could be viewed with his own style as well, a decent fastball and an effective curve with excellent accuracy.

When Paul Byrd was added, the Indians suddenly possessed one of the best one through five starting rotation in either league, and their top four pitchers were all UNDER the age of 30.

Another benefit the Indians enjoyed was that many of these pitchers not only could work into the 6th and 7th innings on a regular basis, they didn't walk that many batters, which helped keep their pitch counts down. The Indians starters tend to skew near the top of the league in allowing more hits, while giving up fewer walks. This is an interesting strategy as it actually can lower a pitchers overall pitch count while keeping the defense on their toes and alert. A batter can easily cause a pitcher to throw five or six pitches when getting a walk, and if they foul off a few two strike pitches, that pitch count can easily reach 8 pitches. Since the batter than reaches base, the next hitters pitches might as well be added, meaning every walk causes a pitcher to lose 8-10 pitches towards their pitch count total.

Starting the 2009 season, three of the five Indians starters are GONE, and their replacements just don't have a history of being 200 inning pitchers. I am estimating that the Indians relievers will pitch at least 162 more innings than this year, than they did last year.

I have read nothing from any of the spring training articles that suggests the Indians are planning on keeping 2 or 3 long relievers in the bullpen. The Indians seem so focused on the back end success of their pen (innings 7-9 less concerned with innings 4-6.

Games that the Indians fall hopelessly behind are also not conducive to using the back end of the pen, meaning the long relievers will serve two roles. First, they will try and save a game early on when the starters can't cut it. Secondly, games in which it looks like Cleveland has little chance to win should be closed out by a long reliever who can go the final three innings of the game.

I think the Indians will have most of their games decided based on what happens in innings 3-6. Lack of long relievers ready to go in the pen may force Eric Wedge to go with his starters too long. The Indians bullpen cannot afford to carry too many relievers who can only go one or two innings max, it will be their downfall if they choose this path.

Many average to slightly less than average pitchers tend to get lit up the more the other teams line-up faces them in the same game. Converting these types of pitchers to once through the line-up may prove somewhat effective.

The Indians offense, led by Grady Sizemore and Shin Soo Choo, should be good enough to come back from deficits and put up five and six runs a night. The key to winning will be taking a starting pitchers three runs allowed in three innings, and then holding the other team over the next 3 innings with a long reliever, as their own offense gets them back in the game. Then and only then will the back end relievers matter.

One bubble reliever has to be Kobayashi, who seems only capable of going one ineffective inning at a time. This slot MUST GO to a pitcher than can go three innings. As it stands right now, it appears the Indians have way too many one and two inning relievers, and nowhere near enough relievers that can go three innings.

I think Sarloos might be an ideal candidate for three inning relief work. Jeremy Sowers might fit that role as well. However, the third three inning guy should be able to throw some heat so we don't have three guys who all throw the same type of ball.

Ironically, Paul Byrd might be a candidate for long relief, but I think he remains unsigned as we speak. Here's hoping the Indians stockpile those three inning relievers coming out of the pen, they will surely need it this upcoming season.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Yankees Save Major League Baseball by Signing Mark Teixeira, Seriously.

The Yankees Saved Major League Baseball by outbidding Boston for the services of Mark Teixeira.  One look at the Boston Red Sox line-up reveals just how devastatingly good Boston would have been had they acquired Teixera.

Start with Jacob Ellsbury, a clone of Coco Crisp, however with more speed and the likelihood of stealing twice as many bases every year with a higher On Base Percentage.  Boston's line-up then features Dustin Pedroia, the first lightweight MVP (and I mean that in a complementary way) going back several decades (Nellie Fox in 1959 was the last second baseman to win the MVP award).  Add in Gold Glove winner as well, and we are still only two deep in the line-up!

Next is the Youk, as in Kevin Youkilis, who manages to pound out a .390 OBP with the appropriate power for a man of his brutish make-up.  These three table setters at the top of the line-up successfully blend speed and power, and the fun is just beginning,  JD Drew and Jason Bay provide plenty of power and offense and once again, very respectable On Base percentages.

Which brings us to David Ortiz, who should be back and healthy after a wrist injury "limited" Ortiz to "only" 23 homers and 89 RBI's while missing over a third of the season (59 games)!

These six ballplayers on their own could easily carry the Red Sox to a solid offensive season. Just imagine if this line-up featured Gold Glove Winning and offensive force Mark Teixeira anchoring it!  That would have been seven stud players all in a row.  All that would be left is a possibly healthier Jason Varitek at catcher, and any bonus production from shortstop.

Speaking of the shortstop position, the Red Sox were trying to reacquire Hanley Ramirez from the Florida Marlins!  Hanley Ramirez Trade Rumor.

Keep in mind that On Base Percentage is usually what fuels a teams offensive success.  Most of Boston's line-up is capable of anywhere from a .360 to .400 OBP, and that makes Boston scary. 

Now imagine two gold glovers on the right side of the field, a defensive speed demon in center field, and the green monster and a jutting left field stand that ricochet's it's portion of doubles down the left field line into short leftfield singles, and the Boston Red Sox defense would have been perfectly structured for Fenway Park.

Even trading Coco Crisp netted Boston a sleeper reliever from the Kansas City Royals who probably will be another in a successful series of young relievers the Red Sox have uncovered in recent years.

So, the Yankees, by wresting away Mark Teixeira from the Red Sox, may have just weakened the Red Sox enough to make it possible to believe the Red Sox can be beaten in a playoff series, and for that, the rest of the American League can breathe a sigh of relief. 

I definitely would have to give the Yankees a "cooler heads" award for realizing that gaming the final piece of the Boston Puzzle away from Boston was a move that may pay for itself over and over for the next several years.

As for those of you who may bemoan how much New York has spent this offseason in retooling their team, The Yankees are not a young team, and that much money spent on only two pitchers can sometimes backfire.  The Yankees will be good, probably as good as Boston.  Now imagine how much better Boston would have been with Teixeira, and less imposing the Yankees would have been without Teixera, and it is easy to see what a great move this was by the New York Yankees.  Pops should be proud.